My Predictions for the Year 2024

Everything I’ve seen suggests that the best way to make predictions about complex phenomena is to baseline using the status quo. So following that heuristic, here are my predictions for the coming year: - The American economy will continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate than the historical average (2-3% instead of 3-4%) - The labor market will continue to experience a shortage, with unemployment below the historical average (it will remain below 4%) - The inflation rate will continue to be low (1-4%) - Interest rates (federal) will continue at their current rate (5-6%) - The national debt will continue to rise quickly ($2-3 trillion) - Joe Biden will be re-elected president - The War in Ukraine will continue unresolved without U.S. direct involvement - The War in Israel will continue unresolved without U.S. direct involvement - AI will be increasingly used but won’t disrupt the job market, higher education, publishing, journalism, or any other realms it is supposed to “radically change” - We will not have widespread use of driverless cars - American Democracy will not be overthrown in a Trump or anti-Trump coup Will I be wrong about some of these predictions? Almost certainly, but I’m guessing that they will be less wrong than our notable pundits currently predicting the opposite.