The Boy Who Wolf Cried

We are all aware of the “crying wolf” phenomenon: past lies destroy credibility when real threats arise. But isn’t there a related and opposite phenomenon that past truths can create credibility for false threats? Just because there was no wolf twice in the past, that doesn’t necessarily mean there isn’t a wolf the third time; but just because there were wolves twice in the past, that doesn’t mean there is a wolf this time. People cried racism in the past and there was racism, but the “Boy Who Wolf Cried” principle means that, because of past racism, we are far more likely to have a lower threshold of evidence when people cry racism in the present (even accusing those who ask for evidence of themselves being “Racist”). The Boy Cried Wolf when it came to Covid suppression (don’t wear masks! Masks can end the pandemic! Lockdown for two weeks! Lockdown indefinitely to reach zero COVID) and now people don’t believe public health officials when they are telling the truth about vaccination. Similarly, The Boy Wolf Cried when there was slavery and Jim Crow, but that shouldn’t lead us to throw out standards of evidence about racism in the present and often times claims of “systemic racism” simply use the word “systemic” as a stand-in for “invisible” (i.e., lack of evidence). Take claims of racism seriously but demand regular standards of evidence lest we become like the Boy Who Wolf Cried.