Peak University?

There are many surface reasons for the possible collapse of universities in the near future (ideological capture, lack of viewpoint diversity, rising tuition costs, etc.), but there may be a deeper reason that relates to the post-industrial revolution. In the agricultural age when nearly everyone lived in small towns, credentials were not required since people generally knew those they did business with (the doctor didn’t need a license because people had come to trust him as able and competent on a personal level). The industrial age changed all this. As people moved to cities and their interpersonal networks multiplied, they needed information signals beyond those they could get from personal interaction. They needed credentials, particularly college degrees. The question is, will these credentials still be necessary in the information age? As newer sources of information on human capital become available (web-based tests, aggregated reviews, brain scans), will licensing or even college degrees serve a function? There is a mania to graduate from colleges to signal ability and disposition to potential employers (and, at elite colleges, to signal prestige to the world—I watched the interesting Netflix documentary on this the other day), but if the information age can supply more accurate and less costly indicators of competence, we may see this mania subside and universities collapse for want of use.